Friday, June 8, 2018

Using History As A Template

There are lessons to learn from history. In fact, I think that a study of history should guide a nation's foreign policy. A new foreign policy idea: a staff historian! Would President Bush have ordered the US invasion of Afghanistan if he had first consulted an historian or two? Possibly not. It is for not for no reason that Afghanistan is called the "graveyard of empires." And the US, after 17 years fighting in that desperate place, is proving this axiom true.

One of my favorite bloggers is Mish Shedlock. Mish writes about economic issues at Mish Talk: Global Economic Trend Analysis. The man is one of the most popular authors on economics on the Internet, and he knows his stuff. His latest post caught my eye.



Is he correct in his observation? Only time will tell, but the reality is that he (actually, Chris Martenson) is observing the increasing polarization of national and ethnic power bases in Europe, again, and this could very well lead to conflict. Not soon, perhaps, but in time.

As Mark Twain reputedly said, "history may not repeat itself, but it often rhymes." Why is this? I think that it is because human beings really never change. History is a record of the same human behaviors again and again. That is why military cadets still study the writings of the Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu (died 486 BC) in military colleges, and, elsewhere, the teachings of Socrates (died 399 BC) continue to resonate and are still studied. The past still speaks to the present, because humans are still the same. Technology changes, but homo sapiens do not. 

I hope Mish is wrong. But if he's correct, it's not like we should be surprised. And even if war does not break out, we are still seeing an older version of Europe reasserting itself.

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